Posted on 02/03/14
Is AAP ready to lead the country after 2014 Lok Sabha elections?
But is it possible for AAP to
form next government? Do they have enough strength to run the government if
they are elected to power?
This article is going to discuss
these two questions with no political bias and only on the available facts.
1) Party Structure - To win the Lok Sabha elections,
AAP needs party structure in every state, city, district, Taluka (Kasba) and
village. AAP being a new party does not have this structure in all the major
states. Their support base is restricted only to a few metropolitan cities in
the northern part of India. They are unknown entity in the interior parts of
India and in southern part of India. It is not possible to win enough seats
with this restricted identity as a “North Indian City Based Party”.
It will take few years to build party
structure at a national level.
2) Party Hierarchy – AAP being a new party lacks the hierarchical structure. This structure is very important for the proper functioning of the party and to win the elections. Currently all the leadership is concentrated only with person; Kejariwal. This structure cannot work if AAP wants to get majority in the Lok Sabha elections. There needs to be a clear structure of office bearers and their delegation of authority at each level. Currently this is not even well defined in Delhi unit. This party structure needs to go down to every village in India. Only then AAP can get the grass root level support. Developing this structure takes time.This again will take few years to happen.
3) Clear agenda – AAP needs to have a very clear vision and an agenda. Branding the established parties as CORRUPT or posing with an anarchist posture cannot become an agenda for AAP to win the Lok Sabha elections. AAP needs to remember, the populist schemes like free water, free electricity etc. can win you the elections but they are not economically sustainable. Many governments have tried this in the past and they have failed. AAP cannot run the government either with an agenda of “Anti-Corruption” or with the constant confrontational approach. Hence the agenda needs to be realistic, reflecting the true aspirations of all the sections of the society and promises that can be delivered.At this point of time AAP does not have a clear agenda of how they would run the government if they are elected to power.
4) Need a Team to govern – India is a very big multicultural country and with lot of complex issues, aspirations and challenges. The issues can range from basic needs like Roti, Kapadaa, Aur Makaan to the big aspiration of being a space supreme and a world economic leader. Now you can see the range of expertise that would be required to run the government! Understanding these complex issues itself, is a big challenge, let alone finding the solution.AAP need to build the team by attracting the wide spectra of experts in verity of fields. Is AAP working on this requirement?
Final remarks and predictions –AAP without the party structure,
without clear objectives and agenda, without the team of experts, without the
maturity to channel the popularity in the right way and without the respect for
the constitution, is in NO POSITION to win the majority of seats in the 2014 Lok
Sabha elections. AAP’s claim to win the 2014 Lok Sabha elections is a just an
air bubble that would grow and then pop!
But AAP cannot be ignored because
they are insignificant. They may not be significant to win the elections but
they will be very significant in deciding the fate of other parties. Read the
following analysis.
People are really fed up with
Congress government and they want a change. If Congress party is expensed out in
this election then the only other national party that can lead India is BJP. In
absence of AAP, all the anti-Congress votes will go to BJP and BJP will be able
to get the majority and give a stable government for the next five years.
But with AAP, all the equations will
change. AAP may be able to win about 15-25 seats all over India but they will
decide the fate of other parties. They can swing the results in other 70-80 constituencies
by dividing anti-congress votes. Basically they will eat into the anti-congress
lunch. This division of anti-congress votes will hurt the BJP’s prospects and they
will not be able to get the majority.
In fact, no party will get the
majority and it will result into a hung parliament. There will be political
instability in the country. Lack of political leadership will result into
economic slow-down, high unemployment, high inflation and most important… uncertainty.
Like in 1996 experiments, few odd
parties (like third front parties) may come together to form the government in
the initial period but they will not be able to sustain. People will undergo
hardship and once again, they will get totally disillusioned with the non-congress
government. Lok Sabha will get dissolved before completing full term and midterm-elections
will be declared within 2-3 years.
At that stage Congress will once again give a message that only Congress can give a stable government and people would believe in it. People will vote for Congress saying; Congress may be corrupt but at least they can run the government for five years!
Hence once again congress will come to power within 2-3 years and that would be the end of anti-corruption movement forever. That would be the end of all the changes that people of India are seeking for.
Congress is a veteran in these games and that is why they supported AAP in New Delhi to form the government. Congress knows, they cannot win 2014 elections but just by supporting AAP, they can destroy the chances of any non-congress party forming the next government. Congress will make the whole country suffer to achieve its political results.
For those who don’t believe in this analysis, see what happened in 1979 when Charan Singh became PM, or in 1990 when Chandra Shekhar became the PM or in 1996-97 when Gujaral and Deve Gowda became PM. Each time country’s economy suffered and people suffered. Ultimately Indians elected Congress back to power on the point of stability.
Same story is bound to repeat again if people vote for AAP.
If Indians don’t want to go through another painful phase of political instability then vote wisely and vote for the stability and the prosperity. Give some time to AAP to get its act together and then try them out in 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
Kishor Katti