tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-66374393669533164362024-02-20T19:39:16.229-08:00Is AAP ready to lead the country after 2014 Lok Sabha elections?KishorKattihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06024105344113139023noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6637439366953316436.post-61587513574708676922014-02-03T17:45:00.001-08:002014-02-03T17:55:12.858-08:00<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">Posted on 02/03/14</span></span></div>
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<span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></span><b><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="color: orange;">Is AAP ready to lead
the country after 2014 Lok Sabha elections?</span></span></span></b></div>
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<b><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="color: orange;"><br /></span></span></span></b></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="color: orange;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLa3BkX3ApbKPyAtwClYElIBngzULVszk9H0MtASv4VIHrEG0P7NnYzj12JgsRv3CHrA8DXeFydagWoz7lwo2idbHTR_qdgTWWUUnGY_fVCQOJsFiEJXBEqaDu7KwxprIEMAh_oBxfnAh8/s1600/Kejariwal-01.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="background-color: transparent; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLa3BkX3ApbKPyAtwClYElIBngzULVszk9H0MtASv4VIHrEG0P7NnYzj12JgsRv3CHrA8DXeFydagWoz7lwo2idbHTR_qdgTWWUUnGY_fVCQOJsFiEJXBEqaDu7KwxprIEMAh_oBxfnAh8/s1600/Kejariwal-01.jpg" /></span></a></span></span></b></div>
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In India, sudden and unexpected
rise of AAP in Delhi elections has surprised everybody. People are sick of
corruption, incompetency and lack of leadership by Congress led UPA and BJP led
PDA governments. They are looking for an alternative to these established
parties.</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Sudden win by AAP in Delhi state
elections has given a hope for a third possibility. AAP is also riding with a
high moral and has declared that they would contest 300 + seats during 2014 Lok
Sabha elections. They are hoping to gain majority in the parliament and form
the next government.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But is it possible for AAP to
form next government? Do they have enough strength to run the government if
they are elected to power?</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>This article is going to discuss
these two questions with no political bias and only on the available facts.</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">1)</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 7pt;"> </span><b style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Party Structure</b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> - To win the Lok Sabha elections,
AAP needs party structure in every state, city, district, Taluka (Kasba) and
village. AAP being a new party does not have this structure in all the major
states. Their support base is restricted only to a few metropolitan cities in
the northern part of India. They are unknown entity in the interior parts of
India and in southern part of India. It is not possible to win enough seats
with this restricted identity as a “North Indian City Based Party”.</span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">It will take few years to build party
structure at a national level.</span></b></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></b><b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">2)<span style="font-size: 7pt;"> </span><!--[endif]--><b>Party Hierarchy </b>– AAP being a new party
lacks the hierarchical structure. This structure is very important for the proper
functioning of the party and to win the elections. Currently all the leadership
is concentrated only with person; Kejariwal. This structure cannot work if AAP
wants to get majority in the Lok Sabha elections. There needs to be a clear structure
of office bearers and their delegation of authority at each level. Currently this
is not even well defined in Delhi unit. This party structure needs to go down
to every village in India. Only then AAP can get the grass root level support. Developing
this structure takes time.</span><b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This again will take few years to happen.</span></b></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></b><b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span></b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">3)<span style="font-size: 7pt;"> </span><!--[endif]--><b>Clear agenda</b> – AAP needs to have a very
clear vision and an agenda. Branding the established parties as CORRUPT or
posing with an anarchist posture cannot become an agenda for AAP to win the Lok
Sabha elections. AAP needs to remember, the populist schemes like free water,
free electricity etc. can win you the elections but they are not economically
sustainable. Many governments have tried this in the past and they have failed.
AAP cannot run the government either with an agenda of “Anti-Corruption” or
with the constant confrontational approach. Hence the agenda needs to be
realistic, reflecting the true aspirations of all the sections of the society
and promises that can be delivered.</span><b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">At this point of time AAP does not have a
clear agenda of how they would run the government if they are elected to power.</span></b></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></b><b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span></b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">4)<span style="font-size: 7pt;"> </span><!--[endif]--><b>Need a Team to govern</b> – India is a very
big multicultural country and with lot of complex issues, aspirations and challenges.
The issues can range from basic needs like Roti, Kapadaa, Aur Makaan to the big
aspiration of being a space supreme and a world economic leader.</span><b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span></b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Now you can see
the range of expertise that would be required to run the government! Understanding
these complex issues itself, is a big challenge, let alone finding the
solution.</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">AAP need to
build the team by attracting the wide spectra of experts in verity of fields. Is
AAP working on this requirement?</span><o:p><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The reality is AAP
does not have a plan or a focus to fill this void. They are wasting their
energy in confrontational issues and announcing free bees to get cheap
popularity. Sure they are attracting some new faces but their focus is on
getting celebrities rather than experts.</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Experts are not
going to join AAP just because of Kejariwal’s anti-corruption stand or
anti-establishment stand. They will join AAP only if they see a vision and the agenda
to give a progressive government.</span><o:p><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I think the
problem is two fold.</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">One; AAP neither
has a nation building vision that would attract experts from various fields nor
they have a plan and the focus on attracting such experts in AAP.</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Two; even if AAP
eventually find such people, they will still need time to build a functional team.</span><b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In short, this cannot be done before 2014
elections. Which means AAP cannot give a progressive government if they are
elected in 2014 Lok Sabha elections.</span></b></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></b><o:p><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">5)<span style="font-size: 7pt;"> </span><!--[endif]--><b>Need to respect the constitution and behave
responsibly</b> – After becoming Chief Minister; Kejariwal has taken great
pride in picking up fights and confrontation with the establishment. He has
claimed that he wants to SHAKE the system and only then the CHANGES can happen.</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Some reporters
pointed out that he is disrespecting the constitution and that would start the
anarchy in the country. To that he replied “that is what he wants to happen and
only then change can happen. And for this, if some people call him anarchist
then he is ok with that”!</span><o:p><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Kejariwal needs
to learn world history a bit more than what he knows.</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">No arrangement
in the world is perfect whether it is democracy, communism or monarchy. In the
latter two arrangements, there is no public participation to bring in the
change. But in democracy, people can make the right choices and bring in the
change. It may take longer time but changes are done in a peaceful manner. If
you see all the matured democracies in today’s world, you will find that they
too have gone through the similar problems in the past but they overcame these
problems by making the necessary changes to the constitution. They did not
resort to the anarchy to bring in the changes.</span><o:p><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I would like to
give a good example here. In my early 20’s, I used to ridicule Gandhiji’s nonviolence
principle and used to hold him responsible for many problems that India was
facing then. But as I grew older, started looking the world with a different
perspective, started understanding the world history in a different way, I realized
something very important; the importance of Non-Violence. If you see any
country which got independence or change of regime through violence, was never
able to achieve peace and stability quickly. The violence continued even after
achieving the objectives. Whereas, the countries like India which fought for the
independence for a long time but did not resort to the violence, were able to
quickly gain peace and stability after the independence. That is when I
understood the importance of nonviolence and my respect to Mahatma Gandhi
increased many folds.</span><o:p><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">When Kejarwal
talks about SHAKING the system by using anarchist methods, he needs to be very
careful about it. Indian people are really unhappy with the current set of
politicians and a slightest provocation and irresponsible behavior from a role
model can turn an ordinary person into an anarchist. Kejariwal may be able to
set off this event but it would be very difficult for him to control it
thereafter. The whole country will play a very heavy price for this kind of irresponsible
behavior of Kejariwal.</span><o:p><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Kejariwal has to
realize, AAP was elected through democratic process and thus Kejariwal is a
part of the current system. He needs to learn, how to work WITHIN the system to
bring in the required changes. That is how all the democracies have matured and
not by anarchist and confrontational approach.</span><o:p><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span></o:p><b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">If Kejariwal cannot show the maturity to
run a small state like New Dehli, how can he be trusted to run the country if
elected in Lok Sabha elections?</span></b></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="color: orange; font-size: large;">Final remarks and predictions –</span></span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">AAP without the party structure,
without clear objectives and agenda, without the team of experts, without the
maturity to channel the popularity in the right way and without the respect for
the constitution, is in NO POSITION to win the majority of seats in the 2014 Lok
Sabha elections. AAP’s claim to win the 2014 Lok Sabha elections is a just an
air bubble that would grow and then pop!</span></b></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But AAP cannot be ignored because
they are insignificant. They may not be significant to win the elections but
they will be very significant in deciding the fate of other parties. Read the
following analysis.</span></b></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">People are really fed up with
Congress government and they want a change. If Congress party is expensed out in
this election then the only other national party that can lead India is BJP. In
absence of AAP, all the anti-Congress votes will go to BJP and BJP will be able
to get the majority and give a stable government for the next five years.</span></b></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But with AAP, all the equations will
change. AAP may be able to win about 15-25 seats all over India but they will
decide the fate of other parties. They can swing the results in other 70-80 constituencies
by dividing anti-congress votes. Basically they will eat into the anti-congress
lunch. This division of anti-congress votes will hurt the BJP’s prospects and they
will not be able to get the majority.</span></b></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In fact, no party will get the
majority and it will result into a hung parliament. There will be political
instability in the country. Lack of political leadership will result into
economic slow-down, high unemployment, high inflation and most important… uncertainty.</span></b></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Like in 1996 experiments, few odd
parties (like third front parties) may come together to form the government in
the initial period but they will not be able to sustain. People will undergo
hardship and once again, they will get totally disillusioned with the non-congress
government. Lok Sabha will get dissolved before completing full term and midterm-elections
will be declared within 2-3 years.</span></b></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">At that stage Congress will once
again give a message that only Congress can give a stable government and people
would believe in it. People will vote for Congress saying; Congress may be
corrupt but at least they can run the government for five years!</span></b></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Hence once again congress will
come to power within 2-3 years and that would be the end of anti-corruption
movement forever. That would be the end of all the changes that people of India
are seeking for.</span></b></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Congress is a veteran in these
games and that is why they supported AAP in New Delhi to form the government. Congress
knows, they cannot win 2014 elections but just by supporting AAP, they can destroy
the chances of any non-congress party forming the next government. Congress
will make the whole country suffer to achieve its political results.</span></b></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">For those who don’t believe in
this analysis, see what happened in 1979 when Charan Singh became PM, or in
1990 when Chandra Shekhar became the PM or in 1996-97 when Gujaral and Deve Gowda
became PM. Each time country’s economy suffered and people suffered. Ultimately
Indians elected Congress back to power on the point of stability.</span></b></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Same story is bound to repeat
again if people vote for AAP. </span></b></div>
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<b><span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">If Indians don’t want to go through another
painful phase of political instability then vote wisely and vote for the
stability and the prosperity. Give some time to AAP to get its act together and
then try them out in 2019 Lok Sabha elections.</span></span></b></h3>
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<b><span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Kishor Katti</span></span></b></div>
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